Footlab methodology

This page is a technical deep-dive for users who want to understand how the engine works. Comment fonctionne Footlab.

Assumptions and sources

The engine relies on objective data from official sources.

Building the indicators

• Scores are calculated per criterion (form, attack, defense, H2H, Elo, etc.).
• Scores are normalised to remain comparable across all matches.
• A weighting is applied according to the progress of the season.
• The final score is converted into 1/N/2 probabilities.

Extreme probabilities are capped to avoid overconfident readings.

Taking odds into account

Observed odds serve as a market reference for the simulation.

Odds — timing

Odds are not fixed — they evolve in the market up to kick-off.

Footlab does not try to predict these changes — it tracks them transparently.

The moment at which an odds value is observed influences its meaning.

Footlab therefore tracks odds movements over time.

The tracked odds are those observed at Parions Sport.

This source is unique, chosen to ensure consistency across all analyses.

The odds used by the simulation engine are the reference market odds observed before the match.

Tracking odds over time does not constitute a prediction or betting advice.

Limits and responsibility

Football remains subject to random events that no model can fully anticipate.

Evolution and transparency

Parameters may evolve across seasons as the engine improves.